It seems that all signs are pointing toward a Cogdill Lieutenant Governor nomination after State Senator Dave Cogdill announced that he will not seek re-election in 2010.

This ironically, (or perhaps not so ironically) comes on the heels of an announcement by Governor Schwarzenegger that Cogdill is on his short list of candidates to replace outgoing Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi.

The governor made the surprising comment in an editorial board meeting with the Fresno Bee earlier yesterday, and the Fresno Bee’s E.J. Schultz reported the comment here.

Senator Cogdill maintains that he is not seeking re-election because he wants to return to the private sector and he has accomplished his key legislative goal of passing a water bond that could include money for dams.

“The pinnacle of my legislative career is the recent passage of a comprehensive solution to rebuild California’s water infrastructure,” said Cogdill in a press release. “While more work lies ahead to complete this goal, I am confident that Californians will support an investment in a reliable water supply for this generation as well as our children and grandchildren.”

Is it possible that this is all a coincidence? Possible, but I would not think so. It all is just coming together too perfectly for him not to be the nominee.

Sure Senator Abel Maldonado would have been a good choice and I outlined a few other choices here, but Cogdill was big in helping the governor push through the recent water bond. And we cannot forget that it was Cogdill who was ousted from power as Senate Republican Leader after helping the governor negotiate the tax-hike budget agreement in February.

Cogdill said himself that the water bill is his proudest accomplishment, so why would he pass up the opportunity as lieutenant governor to further advocate for the November 2010 ballot proposition his water bill produced? As lieutenant governor he would have a much larger platform to promote his valued water measure than as one of 40 senators.

Another indication that it is indeed Cogdill who has been selected can be found in Governor Schwarzenegger’s press release from today thanking Senator Cogdill for his service.

To begin with, it is odd for the governor to issue a press release thanking Cogdill when he still has nearly a year left of his term, unless the governor knows that Cogdill will not be serving much longer. In addition at the end of the press release the governor writes, “Dave will be concluding his time as a legislator on an extremely high note and all Californians owe him a debt of gratitude for his service and dedication to making California a better place.” How could the governor know that Cogdill will end his term on a high note? Unless he is implying that he has currently reached a high note and his term will be ending soon.

Although Cogdill says now he wants to return to the private sector, we have to imagine that he at least might consider running for re-election if he is appointed lieutenant governor.

That would really screw up the campaigns of Senators Jeff Denham and Sam Aanestad, who would be forced to bow out or push the envelope and challenge a Republican incumbent for his seat in a primary. And with Gov. Schwarzenegger having slashed the budget of the lieutenant governor’s office, Cogdill will certainly have tough choices to make as he determines which staff members will follow him to his new position.

The question also presents itself of who would take Cogdill’s place representing Senate District 14.

Two likely candidates can be found in the Assembly: Mike Villines and Tom Berryhill.

These are the two Assemblymen with the most overlap of their current Assembly District with SD-14. Villines though has already invested a lot of effort into the Insurance Commissioner’s race so he would be hard-pressed to jump that ship. That leaves Tom Berryhill as the favorite, but as with everything in politics nothing is ever set in stone so do not be surprised if another candidate surfaces for the seat.

Of course this is all conjecture and Gov. Schwarzenegger could have just mentioned Cogdill’s name to throw everyone off his trail. And Cogdill could have just sent out the press release saying he would not run for re-election in an attempt to make himself more relevant in the eyes of the governor and his advisers.

The governor has said that within two weeks he will reveal his pick, so now we just wait and see what other names might be on the governor’s “short list,” if any at all.